Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#321
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 9.5% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 4.0% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.9
.500 or above 74.4% 79.1% 53.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 73.4% 57.2%
Conference Champion 6.7% 7.5% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.0% 5.3%
First Four1.8% 2.1% 0.5%
First Round7.5% 8.4% 3.6%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 217   Ohio W 71-61 82%    
  Nov 08, 2019 84   Vermont W 63-62 51%    
  Nov 12, 2019 251   @ Siena W 61-55 70%    
  Nov 16, 2019 66   Rutgers L 62-67 34%    
  Nov 23, 2019 295   @ Canisius W 70-62 77%    
  Nov 26, 2019 204   Mercer W 70-61 79%    
  Dec 01, 2019 164   San Diego W 65-61 62%    
  Dec 07, 2019 148   Hofstra W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 18, 2019 315   Niagara W 79-63 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 174   @ Middle Tennessee W 66-65 55%    
  Dec 30, 2019 104   @ Buffalo L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 05, 2020 190   @ George Washington W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 08, 2020 151   @ George Mason L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 233   Fordham W 66-55 81%    
  Jan 15, 2020 237   Massachusetts W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 18, 2020 28   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-71 16%    
  Jan 22, 2020 60   @ Dayton L 60-68 25%    
  Jan 25, 2020 86   Rhode Island W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 29, 2020 233   @ Fordham W 63-58 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 151   George Mason W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 05, 2020 190   George Washington W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 08, 2020 126   @ Duquesne L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 11, 2020 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 14, 2020 52   Davidson L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 22, 2020 105   Richmond W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 26, 2020 126   Duquesne W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 189   @ La Salle W 68-65 59%    
  Mar 04, 2020 221   Saint Joseph's W 72-62 79%    
  Mar 07, 2020 141   @ Saint Louis L 61-62 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 6.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.7 1.7 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.0 1.7 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.6 1.8 0.2 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.4 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 78.2% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.1
15-3 46.8% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 18.0% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.7% 56.5% 39.1% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
17-1 0.7% 79.2% 34.9% 44.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 68.1%
16-2 2.7% 60.4% 24.2% 36.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 47.7%
15-3 4.4% 38.9% 19.2% 19.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.7 24.3%
14-4 7.0% 22.6% 13.4% 9.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 10.7%
13-5 9.3% 12.0% 10.0% 2.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.2%
12-6 11.4% 7.4% 6.5% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.5 1.0%
11-7 11.9% 4.0% 3.8% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.2%
10-8 11.9% 1.9% 1.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.7
9-9 10.9% 1.0% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
7-11 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.5% 5.3% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 91.5 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 4.3 17.4 13.0 65.2